A 4-hour Bitcoin trend strategy that only fires when six independent market factors agree — perp/spot basis, open interest, macro, volatility, session, and ETF flow. Fewer trades, higher conviction, ATR-trailed exits. Long & short, bot-ready, and free.
Most strategies stack more moving averages on top of price. This one keeps the entry simple and instead stacks six independent, mostly non-price factors. A trade only fires when enough of them agree.
Reads leveraged-trader positioning straight from the price feeds — no funding API needed. A flushed basis means over-leveraged traders just got squeezed out, which favours continuation.
Rejects entries when OI is spiking (late crowd chasing) and favours stable or declining OI — a cleaner trend with squeeze fuel left in the tank.
BTC vs. SPX and DXY at the daily scale. Longs prefer SPX up + DXY down; shorts want the inverse. Aligns crypto entries with the broader macro tide.
Bollinger band-width percentile must be elevated. Trends persist when volatility is expanding; compressed vol just chops you up.
Entries restricted to the London/NY overlap (12:00–20:00 UTC), where 4H breakouts hold far better than in thin Asian-session liquidity.
Spot-ETF (IBIT) volume vs. its average — a post-2024 read on institutional participation behind a move.
Because the factors are uncorrelated by design, they don't all fail at once. A live on-chart dashboard shows each factor's PASS/FAIL status in real time, plus the conviction score, trend, equity, and risk-breaker state.
The trigger is only allowed to fire if at least N of the 6 factors pass. Rarer signals, but each one carries far more conviction than a bare price pattern.
No fixed take-profit. Winners ride a 4× ATR Chandelier trailing stop; losers are cut by a tight initial-stop floor. Trends run, single-trade risk stays capped.
Daily & weekly loss limits (in R), a consecutive-loss kill switch, and a post-loss cooldown — built in, so a bad streak can't run away.
Switch the whole config between Linear (Binance/Bybit USDT perps or spot), Inverse (Bybit BTCUSD.P coin-margined), or Custom. Contract scalars handled automatically.
Four clean JSON events — long/short entry, exit-in-profit, exit-at-loss — each with action, symbol, price, time and P&L%. Works with 3Commas, Cornix, or any custom webhook (incl. our free platform).
TradingView Strategy Tester results — Conviction Stacker on Binance BTC/USDT, 4H, Sep 2017 – May 2026 (~8.6 years), $10,000 fixed position size.
⬇ Download Full Backtest (.xlsx)| Year | Trades | Return (4H, BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 (partial) | 10 | +128.3% |
| 2018 | 34 | +66.0% |
| 2019 | 31 | +88.1% |
| 2020 | 33 | +78.2% |
| 2021 | 32 | +25.0% |
| 2022 | 36 | +31.8% |
| 2023 | 40 | −6.9% |
| 2024 | 25 | +74.3% |
| 2025 | 37 | +15.5% |
| 2026 (partial) | 12 | +16.6% |
| Avg / full year | 290 total | ~46% |
*Average of complete calendar years 2018–2025 (partial 2017 & 2026 excluded from the average). Overall: +516.9% total return over ~8.6 years across 290 trades, profit factor 1.97, max drawdown 9.3%. Win rate is 39% — and that's by design: this is a trend-follower that takes many small, tight-stopped losses and lets a few winners run (which is why the profit factor and drawdown matter far more than win rate). Tested on a fixed $10,000 position size, 0.10% commission, 2-tick slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Add it to your TradingView chart, run the backtest yourself, and wire the alerts to your exchange. No paywall — the whole CryptoScope platform is free.
Get Free Access on TradingViewBy design. The conviction stack rejects most setups, so signals are rare. And like all trend-followers, it takes many small losses (tight stops) and lets a handful of winners run on the ATR trail. The profit factor (1.97) and the 9.3% max drawdown are the numbers that matter, not win rate.
Bitcoin on the 4H timeframe. Presets cover Binance spot/perp (USDT), Bybit linear (USDT), and Bybit inverse (BTCUSD.P coin-margined) — the contract scalar is set automatically per preset.
Yes. It fires clean JSON webhook alerts (long/short entry, exit-in-profit, exit-at-loss) compatible with 3Commas, Cornix, or any custom webhook — including the free CryptoScope platform, which executes them on Bybit or Binance with managed TP/SL.
It's invite-only on TradingView but access is 100% free. Open the Conviction Stacker script and request access.
The CryptoScopeAI ATR Bands + EMA Trend Predictor — a multi-timeframe 8H trend system. Also free.
Risk disclosure: Crypto trading involves substantial risk of loss. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not account for all real-world conditions, and does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is financial advice.